Insights

July 17, 2026

Europe’s political and economic landscape is changing rapidly, with major implications for businesses operating across the bloc. We spoke with James Stevens, Managing Partner, Brussels, Rud Pedersen, about the end of the rules-based global order, Europe’s push to strengthen economic competitiveness and what global business leaders should be watching next.

ICYMI: Our annual Summer Edit is back, featuring recommendations from some of the smartest people in our network on what to read, watch and listen to this summer. Read it here.

Europe is at a crossroads. Companies are being asked to choose.

The old playbook is dead.

For decades, multinational companies operated in a world largely defined by open trade, global integration, and a belief that economic interests would ultimately outweigh political divisions. Today, that assumption is rapidly eroding.

We spoke this week with James Stevens, Managing Partner, Brussels, Rud Pedersen, one of Europe’s leading independent public affairs and strategic communications firms. The company advises international and European companies, scale-ups and organizations on how to navigate political, regulatory and reputational complexity.

Stevens described a business environment increasingly shaped by fragmentation rather than globalization. Governments across the U.S., Europe and China are asking companies a question many hoped they could avoid: Which team are you on?

The end of strategic neutrality

One of Stevens’ most striking observations is that companies are finding it harder to remain neutral. Governments are increasingly prioritizing domestic and regional economic interests, industrial strategies are becoming more protective and expectations around corporate alignment are growing.

Whether it’s “America First,” Europe’s push for greater strategic autonomy, or China’s domestic priorities, businesses face pressure to demonstrate their commitment to regional, political and economic priorities. For global companies, reputation, public affairs, government relations and market strategy are becoming inseparable.

The continent’s new word: Competitiveness

Just a few years ago, much of Europe’s policy debate centered on sustainability and the Green Deal. Today, Stevens notes that nearly every second sentence in Brussels includes another term: competitiveness.

As Stevens puts it, “we’ve flipped.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy challenges, supply chain disruptions and growing geopolitical tensions have pushed policymakers in Brussels to focus more intensely on industrial capacity, economic security and growth.

Businesses are now split between those urging policymakers to “stay the course” on ambitious climate goals and those seeking to slow implementation while Europe’s industrial base regains its footing.

The many Europes

There’s a deeper layer to all of this: Not only must companies operating in the EU navigate pressure to line up behind Brussels’ pan-European priorities, but also the national priorities of the EU’s 27 individual member states, Stevens said.

Despite efforts to project unity, ongoing issues from the war in Ukraine to the energy crisis have on occasion led to open contradiction.

Stevens calls monolithic views of Europe the “biggest misconception” held by companies operating in the bloc and encourages the private sector to adopt a highly localized understanding of the priorities and political outlook of the countries in which they operate.

The question that will shape Europe’s future

Stevens argues that the most important debate looking ahead may not be about regulation, trade or even elections. It’s about money.

Europe remains committed to decarbonization, industrial resilience and long-term competitiveness. The challenge is deciding who pays for the transition. As the EU negotiates its next seven-year budget, leaders face a fundamental question: Can Europe invest enough in its future industries while maintaining public support for that investment?

As Stevens put it, the defining issue is whether the member states can agree on a budget “that puts money against the future and not against the past.” For business leaders, communicators and investors, that may be the most important European story to watch.

Why it matters

The era of globalization is giving way to one of geopolitical alignment. Companies that once focused primarily on markets and customers must now navigate competing national priorities, evolving regulatory models and growing expectations about where they stand. The organizations that succeed will be those that understand not just the economics of change, but the politics behind it.

Still ahead

If you would like to join a virtual discussion in September to explore this topic in more detail, share your interest here.

Key upcoming events

Leadership + Ideas

• Semafor World of Work (Washington, D.C., July 22) In partnership with Gallup, this invitation-only gathering explores how AI, economic uncertainty and shifting employee expectations are reshaping organizations, with discussions focused on workforce trust, employee engagement, talent strategy, AI adoption and organizational resilience. Speakers include Jon Clifton, CEO of Gallup; Katy George, CVP of workforce transformation at Microsoft; and Claire MacIntyre, CPO at Sam’s Club.

• CIO 100 Awards & Conference (Frisco, Texas, Aug 17-19) The world’s most influential CIOs and technology leaders gather to share how they’re scaling AI, accelerating digital transformation and turning innovation into measurable business results. Speakers include Jen Hartsock, EVP and chief information and digital officer at Cargill; Motti Finkelstein, former CIO of global IT at Intel and CEO of EMDO; and Deepa Soni, EVP and CIO of New York Life Insurance Company.

AI + Tech

• Ai4 (Las Vegas, Aug. 4-6) Join thousands of business executives, technology leaders and researchers to explore the latest advances in artificial intelligence. Speakers include Fei-Fei Li, CEO of World Labs; Andrew Ng, founder of DeepLearning.AI and former head of Google Brain; and Dmitri Dolgov, co-CEO of Waymo.

Bookmark Global Gateway Advisors’ event tracker, updated weekly.

Media news

• A new newsletter from Fortune. “Fortune 500 Digest Weekday,” written by Jim Edwards, executive editor for global news, hits inboxes each morning with the latest business news and analysis.
• Semafor expands its video strategy. The publisher hired former Fortune executive Adam Banicki to lead video as it develops five new shows aimed at C-suite audiences, betting on influence over scale.
• The AI feedback loop. As ChatGPT, Gemini and other AI chatbots increasingly turn to Reddit for answers, brands are flooding the platform with marketing slop in an effort to shape what AI says about them—a practice known as generative engine optimization (GEO). Reddit’s answer? AI-powered moderation, kicking off a new AI-versus-AI arms race.
• Anthropic is hiring a standards editor. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about the growing importance of the corporate newsroom, so it’s fitting that the tech company is offering a salary of up to $295,000 (!) for the role.
• Chase launched a Substack. Stacking Paper is a finance newsletter for young people and, as it puts it, “everyone who is over being bad at money.”
• Muck Rack releases its 2026 State of PR report. The annual survey of PR professionals suggests AI has moved from experiment to expectation, while communications teams are beginning to rethink how they earn visibility in AI-generated search results. Among the findings:
  • 80% already use generative AI in their workflow.
  • 73% say GEO is now part of their communications strategy.
  • 55% are targeting high-authority publications to improve AI visibility.
  • Yet 39% aren’t measuring GEO success at all.

Media moves